Thursday, October 02, 2008

Let me preface this by saying how much I hope I'm wrong. And I might well be, so that's good. But consider...

Palin has become a national laughingstock by flailing her way through "getting to know you" questions about her background and her knowledge of issues she doesn't know much about. Many people are anticipating more of the same at tonight's debate. But debate questions are different: they don't ask what the candidate knows about an issue, they ask how the candidate would handle the issue, what policy approach they support.

To good Democrats, this may seem like a subtle distinction: after all, how can you explain your policy if you can't explain the issue? But that's exactly the kind of thinking that causes Democrats to lose debates to much less knowledgeable foes. "Winning" this kind of debate is not about demonstrating you're smarter than the other guy/gal, or even that you'd pursue better policies. The swing voters you're trying to win over don't follow politics closely, and by definition don't have strong preferences for the policies of one side or the other. Winning the debate is about connecting with them emotionally, showing them that you like people like them and that you're tough enough for the job.

So what does a good debate answer sound like? Start with that emotional connection: tell a story about how the issue you were asked about affects regular people, either something you heard on the trail, or better yet something personal. Ideally, you spend most of your 90 seconds here, because this will hold voters' attention and convey that you care. Don't have a good specific story? Just talk with some feeling about how and why people care about the issue. The point here is to demonstrate that you share voters' concerns.

Only after you've won their hearts do you answer the question - at least, sort of. Start with a few words of general principle that no one could disagree with. This makes you look sympathetic and strong, the candidate of common sense. Then offer a couple lines about specific policies that would further those aims, just enough so no one accuses you of dodging the question. Tack on a dig at your opponent to put them on the defensive, and you're done.

Does Palin have folksy stories? You betcha. Can she memorize a few talking points about each of the dozen issues she might get asked about? Sure thing. Can she deliver a barbed line mischaracterizing her opponents? No doubt.

Not only do standard debate questions work in Palin's favor, she's also helped by a regimented debate format, because unlike in the wide-ranging interviews she has flubbed, there is usually much less room for follow-up questions to try to pin her down. Put all this together and you see it was no fluke that Palin did well in her gubernatorial debates.

So what would happen if Palin did okay, or even a little better than okay, in tonight's debate? First of all, relative to prevailing expectations, it would be a triumph. The story would be how well Palin did, which could get people thinking maybe they had underestimated her, which could imply maybe they had underestimated McCain. Given the attention this matchup will receive, that might even be enough to nudge the momentum back their way.

But Palin won't be alone under the lights: Joe Biden and Gwen Ifill will be there too. When you imagine their reactions, the scenario gets even more interesting.

First of all, Joe. Biden is a smart guy, and I like him a lot, but there is a reason he has never quite made it out of the middle of the pack of presidential contenders. He often seems to want to wow people, and tries a little too hard. He puts on a show, saying things like "Ladies and gentlemen..." and flashing his great toothy grin - sometimes even grinning when he's talking about war and terrorism and suffering. As many have recognized, this could prove disastrous: if he goes after Palin, he risks coming off as overbearing, obnoxious, a high-handed know-it-all. Reasonably enough, many people have said Biden should just remain composed and respectful, answer the questions and engage Palin as little as possible.

The problem is that this disengagement strategy is premised in part on the idea that Palin is a ticking time bomb: that all Biden has to do is stay out of her way and she'll eventually get a question she can't handle and self-destruct. But what if she doesn't? What if , midway through, Palin is doing okay, or better than okay? If you're Joe Biden, are you going to just sit there and let her play you to a draw - or beat you? On the biggest stage Biden has ever been on, is he going to let himself get shown up by someone everybody knows is an idiot? Or does Biden get agitated, and start looking for opportunities to attack, to pin Palin down, to put her in her place? If Biden stops playing it safe, all bets are off. He might be brilliant, but things might also go horribly wrong.

There's also another interesting subplot to watch tomorrow too: Gwen Ifill. First Charlie Gibson and then Katie Couric greatly enhanced their professional reputations by conducting respectful but revealing interviews with Palin. If Palin has her answers ready, and Ifill just follows standard debate protocol, Palin could come through unscathed - even though everyone knows she doesn't understand most of the issues she'll be asked about. Does Ifill want to be known as the first national TV journalist to let Palin get away with bluffing her way through? Or will Ifill exercise more Russert-like discretion and try to pin Palin down?

The press has already done a remarkable job exposing Palin as anything but the reformer she was billed as, and has decisively established that she is not ready to be VP. But while this debate could turn out to be the final nail in her coffin, we misunderestimate her at our peril - just like we once did with another intellectually challenged governor, George W. Bush



john neffinger huffington post

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