Threats from Hurricane Irene
1.Wind—Tropical storm force winds are likely over most of the area, with hurricane force winds possible along the immediate coast. Pender and Onslow will likely see the highest winds. Any deviation to the west may bring higher gusts to the area.


2.Rain/Flooding—Some moderate flooding may occur in coastal and northeastern counties from expected rain fall amounts of 2-12 inches. Higher amounts are expected at the coast with lower amounts near I-95. Pender, Onslow and points north and east will see the most rain.


3.Tornadoes—A tornado threat is minimal at this point, but can not be ruled out from any outer rain bands that move on shore.


4.Storm surge— Storm surge threat remains moderate. New Hanover and Pender could see minor surge as Irene approaches Saturday morning and midday. Onslow and points east will see moderate surge Saturday.


5.Coastal/marine impacts—High surf, large waves, swells, and significant beach erosion will occur and boating is not advised. The rip current threat will be high through the weekend.

Timing of the storm
•Friday afternoon — The North Carolina coast will be under hurricane warnings until the system has passed. Some weaker outer rain bands will bring scattered showers through much of the day. These rain bands may contain gusty winds, a few gusts near tropical storm force are possible.
•Friday evening— Outer rain bands will begin to move onshore by early evening. These rain bands will contain tropical storm force gusts and coastal counties may see sustained tropical storm winds by midnight. Winds will continue to increase and heavy rain will accompany more rain bands. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The strongest winds will be along the beaches.
•Saturday morning — Hurricane Irene will pass off the Cape Fear coast and should make landfall along the Crystal coast or Outer Banks. Heavy rain can be expected along coastal counties, with gusty winds at times over hurricane force. Gusts may be even higher in Onslow County (80-90 mph). Inland counties will see heavy rain but not as much. Some flooding is possible near the coast, and winds could gust near hurricane force at Surf City or Topsail Beach. Far inland counties will see a lighter showers from rain bands that reach inland. Breezy conditions can be expected through much of Saturday. Worst conditions in the Cape Fear location are expected from 4-8 AM.
•Saturday night — Rain and gusty winds will continue most of Saturday. These will begin to diminish throughout the evening as Irene pulls away from the North Carolina coast, however Irene is a large storm so it will be a slow process to get it completely out of here.
•
Tides will play into these scenarios as well:

Wrights Beach Tides-
High Tide: 06:20 AM
Low Tide: 12:23 PM


County By County Breakdown

--New Hanover County--
(Wilmington, Carolina Beach, Wrights Beach)

New Hanover County should expect to see sustained winds—between 40 and 60 mph with gusts over hurricane force, especially at the coast—and possibly 6 to 9 inches of rain because of Hurricane Irene. The county will also see very large waves, coastal erosion, and high surf and rip currents. Some storm surge is expected, but less than 5 feet. Power outages are likely.

--Brunswick County--
(Leland, Oak Island, Southport, Bald Head Island, Sunset Beach, Ocean Isle Beach, Hold en Beach, Shallot)

Brunswick County will likely see sustained 40 to 50 mph wind with gusts to 60 mph at the coast. Look for substantial coastal erosion due to Hurricane Irene. There will also be high surf and rip currents. 4 to 8 inches of rain (higher amounts near the coast) may be possible this afternoon through Saturday. Minor storm surge could be possible. Scattered power outages are possible.

--Pender County--
(Burg aw, Hempstead, Topsail Island, Swath, Rocky Point)

Pender County should expect to see 60 to 70 mph sustained winds for a time Saturday morning and midday, especially coastal and northern Pender (Hempstead, Topsail, Holly Ridge). Depending on Irene's exact track an 80+ mph wind gust or two can't be ruled out at the coast. Coastal erosion and large waves and swells will be likely for the beaches. There could also be minor coastal flooding and possibly 7 to 10 inches of rainfall. Storm surge could be around 5 feet, and higher with any track deviation.

Pender County has declared a state of emergency

--Bladen County--
(Elizabeth town, Kelly, Tar heel, White Lake, Clark ton, Dublin)

Bladen County can expect Tropical Storm Force winds (39+ mph) with some higher gusts —and 2 to 5 inches of rain.

--Columbus County--
(Whiteflies, Lake Acclaim, Bolt on, Greenwood, Chad bourn)

Columbus County can expect Tropical Storm force winds (39+ mph). A few gusts may be 50 mph —and 2 to 5 inches of rain.

--Onslow County--
(Jacksonville, N Topsail, Sinead Ferry, Rich lands, Brogue, Swanson)

The biggest impacts from Irene in our area may be in Onslow County, as it will be closer to the landfall of Irene. Gusts over 90 mph at the coast and rainfall amounts of over a foot are possible, especially on the north east side of the county. Very heavy surf, coastal erosion and large waves are expected along the coast. A moderate storm surge is expected and the surf will be very rough.

Any deviation to the west of current forecast would mean dramatic increase in effects for Onslow County. Sustained hurricane force winds are likely, especially at the coast.

Storm surge could be especially devastating for Onslow County, especially around Brogue and Swanson. Storm surge of 6 to 10 feet can be expected with Irene, especially near the eye. A shift to the west of the track could put New River Inlet under surge conditions for a time while Irene moves toward the coast. Winds will be onshore and water may back up in the inlet.

--Dublin County--
(Warsaw, Rose Hill, Wallace, Knoxville)

Sustained winds around 50 mph are possible with gusts to hurricane force and 4-7 inches of rain is possible. A hurricane warning remains in effect.

--Robe son County--
(Lumber ton, Pembroke, Airman, Red Springs)

The county is expected to have lesser impacts from Hurricane Irene. Saturday morning, there may be breezy conditions with showers, with a few gusty squalls.

--Sampson/Cumberland Counties--
(Fayetteville, Rosewood, Clinton, Red Springs)

The counties will experience a breezy Saturday morning, with gusts up wind up to 30 mph and some scattered showers. There may be brief times of heavy rain.